Fiver predictors, including gender, weight, direct bilirubin (DB), alkaline phosphatase (ALP), and gamma-glutamyl transpeptidase (GGT) were significantly different between the BA and non-BA groups (P < .05), from which DT, RF, and nomogram models were developed.
Markers for high index of clinical suspicion for BA are: a "usually" well thriving infant with conjugated hyperbilirubinemia, raised gamma glutamyl transpeptidase, persistently "acholic" stools, firm hepatomegaly with dysmorphic, hypoplastic gall bladder.
Parameters showing a significant difference between BA (n = 166) and non-BA (n = 316) patients were analyzed by logistic regression to predict the occurrence of BA, and then a nomogram scoring system was designed and validated in another cohort that included 190 cases of NC.A prediction diagnostic criterion with parameters including direct bilirubin, total bilirubin, globulin, albumin, gamma glutamyl transpeptidase, cholesterol, total bile acid, hepatobiliary scintigraphy, birth weight, and stool color was established; the sensitivity and specificity of this diagnostic criterion was 89% and 84%, respectively.
Using a CART predictive model of BA versus Non-BA (significant factors: gamma-glutamyl transpeptidase, acholic stools, weight), the receiver operating characteristic area under the curve (ROC AUC) was 0.83.